28 May 2008
High price of hotter weather
By PAUL EASTON - The Dominion Post | Wednesday, 28 May 2008Wellington could one day bask in the temperatures now experienced by Auckland.
New data on climate change from Niwa is predicting a temperature rise of two degrees celsius by the end of the century - the difference in the annual median temperature between Wellington and Auckland.
And while the average yearly rainfall is tipped to drop by 3 per cent in Auckland, the capital will be 3 per cent more soggy.
An Agriculture and Forestry Ministry report says farmers can expect worse and more frequent droughts as climate change takes hold, halving production in bad years.
"It is going to get harder to produce things like cheese, so we will have to get used to the fact that the price is going to keep going up," Federated Farmers president Charlie Pedersen said.
"We have just been through 50 years of some of the cheapest food since we were hunter-gatherers. Sadly for the consumer, it is going to get expensive again,"
Mr Pedersen said farmers would adapt by growing produce suited to the changing climate. "In the East Coast you have more wine country, for example, while in the south you might get more crop varieties."
The areas expected to be worst hit by drought are the North Island's east coast and parts of Wairarapa and Canterbury.
But it was not all bad news for farmers, with the warmer and wetter weather boosting production in areas such as Southland and the West Coast.
"The warmer climate may lead to an earlier start for pasture growth in late winter or spring," MAF natural resources director Mike Jebson said. "Farmers may choose to respond by bringing lambing forward or sowing crops earlier."
Niwa's data said New Zealand was already experiencing climate change. Signs included fewer frosts and retreating glaciers. There had already been a 0.9C warming over the past 100 years.
The Government has issued a guide for local councils to use in their planning, to take account of developments on flood-prone land, and stormwater systems that may need to cope with more rain.